POST-IB BRIEF — NIFTY
- Gapped down 143 pts (0.59%) to 24,068, below yesterday’s TPO VA (24,120-24,230); Open-Auction, gap-down variant (OAOR_DOWN).
- IB 106.55 pts (24,157.1-24,050.55) = 45.7% of ATR-20, ~104% of avg IB — broken DOWN, against yesterday’s TREND_UP/STRONG_HIGH close.
- Straddle down 42.8% since open (173.0→98.9), a Balance-Day signal, yet IV regime shifted NORMAL→EXTREME in one session — regime_analysis flags IB breaks as HIGH follow-through here. Conflicting reads.
- Overhead confluence 24,180-24,260 (naked POCs, selling tail, balance VAH); put wall 24,000 is the nearest magnet below.
OPEN ASSESSMENT
Open-Auction, gap-down (OAOR_DOWN) — out of balance despite unconvincing tape. Yesterday closed TREND_UP, STRONG_HIGH (81%) with a poor high (no selling tail); today’s gap and b-Shape cut against that strength.
INITIAL BALANCE
106.55 pts, 45.7% of ATR-20 (233.26), below the 60% contains-the-range mark, ~103.9% of average IB: unremarkable width, ATR ratio leans breakout. Already broken DOWN, against the uptrend but with today’s gap.
VOLUME & OPTIONS CHECK
Volume so far 2,288,455. Straddle decay (KB Sec. 7) reads as Balance-Day pricing — fade extremes. Conflicts with options positioning: combined IV 21.16% vs yesterday’s 16.4% close (+7.47%), percentile 100 (EXTREME), regime shifted NORMAL→EXTREME in one session — IB breaks carry HIGH follow-through; standard levels will not reliably contain the auction (widen targets/stops ~1.3x). Put wall 24,000 (41.3M OI); call wall 24,100 sits inside the IB.
DEVELOPING DAY TYPE
b-Shape developing (0.7 confidence: selling early, balance late, VA low) — liquidation, not new initiative selling, since today’s open was OA not OD/OTD-down. Liquidated TREND_UP should resume once complete. otf_daily NEUTRAL; range Contracting (51% of ATR).
TODAY’S PLAN
– LINE IN THE SAND: 24,050.55 (IB low / OR low).
– Above: b-Shape base intact — targets 24,120, then naked TPO POC 24,200; invalidation below day low 24,038.1.
– Below: breakdown continues, EXTREME IV favors follow-through — targets put wall 24,000, then 23,875 buying-tail; invalidation on reclaim of 24,068.
– TRAP WARNING: 24,180-24,260 stacks naked POCs, a selling tail, and balance VAH — dense resistance. Straddle-decay vs EXTREME-IV reads conflict.
KEY LEVELS
Level | Type | Why it matters
24,248 | Balance VAH | bracket ceiling
24,240 | Naked Vol POC / Tail | magnet + rejection
24,200 | Naked TPO POC | magnet
24,157.1 | IB High | Poor high
24,120 | Prior VAL / Gap Top | gap top
24,050.55 | IB Low / OR Low | Line in the sand
24,000 | Put Wall | magnet below