NIFTY Weekly Plan — Week of 23 June 2026
Executive Summary
– WOTF: UP for 2 consecutive weeks. Prior-week close 23631 → this-week close 24043 (high 24189). Swing longs primary while 24000 holds; that is the weekly line in the sand.
– Buyers won. Value migrated ~800 pts higher from prior week’s VA (23150–23350) to this week’s dominant range (~23930–24130, weekly VWAP 24020). Thursday OTD_UP closed at 93.5%; Friday’s 177-pt gap down was fully recovered, closing 96.9%.
– Dual poor highs, no selling tail. Thursday 24189 and Friday 24047 are suspended auctions — the upward auction is incomplete, not finished. Both are strong magnets for next week.
– Primary (55%): IF Monday sustains above 24000 (put wall / weekly VWAP cluster), expect Normal Variation UP sessions targeting Thursday’s poor high (24189) and the 68-day balance VAH (24352). Alternate (30%): close below 23950 → rubber-band mean reversion to 23900 VPOC.
Macro Context
Price is below the 250d VWAP (24408) under a DEATH_CROSS; breadth below 50% confirms a corrective bounce, not a new bull leg. Short-term EMA stack is BULL (EMA8 > EMA21 > EMA50). VWAP stack is MIXED: 5d (24013) > 30d (23622) < 90d (23710) < 250d (24408). Price (24043) sits at 72.85% of the 68-day balance (22542–24601), approaching VAH (24352) from below — the move is WITH short-term momentum but AGAINST the macro trend.
This Week’s Auction
Prior week (Jun 8–12) closed 23631 (VA 23150–23350, WOTF UP). This week drove value decisively higher: Wednesday anchored near d3_vwap 24068; Thursday (OTD_UP, VA 24070–24130, high 24189) was the week’s conviction day — NEUTRAL_EXTREME_HIGH, 93.5% close, poor high; Friday (OAOR_DOWN) gapped 177 pts lower but fully recovered the gap, VA 23930–23990, NEUTRAL_EXTREME_HIGH close at 96.9% with both poor high (24047) and poor low. Value migrated decisively higher for a second consecutive week. Naked POCs created this week: 24000 and 23950 (Friday), 24130 and 24110 (Thursday). No unfilled weekly gap remains.
Volatility Regime
IV 9.17 (low, <10), vol contracting. HV5d (8.67) << HV20d (12.91) — realized vol decelerating. Rubber band EXPANDED (1.648): trailing rotations 65% above IV-implied; contraction expected. Next week: low-IV grind, Normal Variation days, compressed rotations (median 15–20 pts per IV table). Risk: rubber-band snap targets 23900–23950 reversion.
Balance Context
Inside the 68-day balance (22542–24601, VAH 24352, VAL 23416, VPOC 23900) at 72.85%. The 33-day balance (23070–24090, VPOC 23900) was broken upward this week. Apply 70/30 default: treat as balancing until 24352 is accepted. Responsive selling near 24352 is the macro structural trade.
Key Structural Zones
Resistance: 24047 (Fri poor high), 24090 (33-day balance high / breakout pivot), 24110/24130 (Thu naked POCs), 24189 (Thu poor high — primary magnet), 24230 (42-day naked VPOC), 24352 (68-day VAH — breakout threshold).
Support: 24000 (put wall 9.6M OI + Fri vol_poc + weekly VWAP — line in sand), 23950 (Fri tpo_poc), 23900 (multi-balance VPOC — gravity), 23752 (33-day balance VAH), 23416 (68-day VAL).
Monday Open Scenarios
a) Inside this week’s value (23930–24130): Rotational. Buy 24000–24013 (weekly VWAP), target 24110–24130. Fade 24130 if no follow-through.
b) Above value, inside range (24130–24189): LAF watch at Thursday poor high 24189. Short on stall; target 24020. Invalidation: acceptance above 24189.
c) Below value, inside range (<23930): Responsive buy at 23900 VPOC. LBAF setup off 23950. No directional commitment above 24000.
d) Above range (>24189): Gap through poor high — don’t fade; watch for trap at 24230 (42-day naked VPOC) and May 8 gap zone (24234–24284). Stop below 24090 if long.
e) Below range (<23901): Continuation lower. Targets 23752 then 23631 (prior-week close). No long until responsive buying evidence at 23900.
Line in the Sand: 24000
“Above 24000, weekly bias is BULLISH — target 24189 → 24230 → 24352. Below 24000, bias is NEUTRAL to BEARISH — test 23900 VPOC; below 23752 the weekly trend flips.”
Auction Efficiency: MODERATE — value migrated decisively higher (two WOTF UP weeks), but back-to-back poor highs and expanded rubber band signal inventory imbalance. Friday gap-fill at 96.9% is bullish; expect repair attempt or 23900 reversion.
Learning Note: This week confirmed that the NEUTRAL_EXTREME_HIGH day type produces the same structural footprint (poor high, suspended auction) regardless of open type — whether OTD_UP (Thursday) or OAOR_DOWN after a gap (Friday). The close location is the market’s verdict, not the open. Both closes above 93% of range override the bearish open-type signals.