- Gapped down 113 pts below yesterday’s value area, dipped further, then reversed — an Open Rejection Reverse continuing yesterday’s B-Shape selling.
- Initial Balance (23,467-23,537, 70 pts) is narrow at ~43% of the 20-day ATR and has held the whole range so far; no breakout yet.
- IV flipped Normal→Extreme at yesterday’s close, now at its own 100th percentile even as today’s realized vol reads compressed — a real tension.
- Stats lean weak-bullish but B-Shape + down-open skews bearish — mixed. Line in the sand: 23,467 (IB low).
POST-IB BRIEF — NIFTY
OPEN & IB
Opened 23,522, ~108 pts below yesterday’s value area (23,630-23,680), dipped to 23,467, then reversed toward 23,537 — an Open Rejection Reverse, the lowest-conviction open type, favoring balance over trend. Extends yesterday’s B-Shape (long-liquidation break, closed at the extreme low, 8.8%). IB (23,467-23,537, 70 pts) runs ~43% of ATR-20 (162), absorbing the whole session’s range so far. One single print has formed.
VOLUME & OPTIONS
Volume (2.17M) nears all of Sept 7’s 2.30M in barely an hour. Straddle decayed just 1.7% (267.6→263) — too mild to call balance-day or trend-day. Yesterday’s close confirmed the Normal→Extreme IV shift (100th percentile), over-priced vs realized vol; rotations still run half of IV-implied (rubber-band compressed) — trust a confirmed breakout, don’t fade it. Live options: IV 10.6%, PCR ~1.0, call and put walls both at 23,500 — a tight pin on spot, bisecting the IB.
DEVELOPING DAY TYPE
Leaning B-Shape (early selling, balance building late, value drifting lower), 0.7 confidence; OTF flag Neutral — day timeframe in control. Price trades under the 23,606 low of the 19-day multi-week balance (Jul 13-31) — arguing for reassessment, not simple resumption of the older uptrend.
TODAY’S PLAN
– LINE IN THE SAND: 23,467 (IB low, the reversal’s extreme).
– Below: Confirms the balance breakdown; targets naked POC 23,430, then the Jun-12 buying tail (23,314-23,320). Stop above 23,500.
– Above: Validates the reversal; targets naked POC cluster 23,660-23,760. Stop below 23,467.
– TRAP: The Jul-24 buying tail (23,606-23,623), partially filled, now sits above price — a bounce there isn’t proof of reversal.
KEY LEVELS
23,660-23,760 | Naked POC cluster | overhead magnets
23,606 | Balance low | broken floor
23,537 | IB High | range ceiling
23,500 | Options pin | call/put wall on spot
23,467 | IB Low | line in the sand
23,430 | Naked POC | support magnet