POST-IB BRIEF — NIFTY
- Gapped down 172 pts (0.72%) from Friday’s 24,212 close, tested the OR low/put wall at 24,000, then reversed toward the IB high — an Open-Test-Drive read (v2 engine tags OD_UP).
- IB range 128.6 pts = 51.9% of ATR-20, 10.7% wider than the recent average IB — leans Normal/Normal-Variation, not DD Trend.
- Straddle down 19.8% since the open (227→182), a balance/responsive signal even as 7/7 selected historical stats lean bullish.
- Dense overhead confluence at 24,180-24,240 (prior POC/VAH, weekly POC/VWAP, naked POC, selling tail) — don’t chase longs without 2+ TPO acceptance.
OPEN ASSESSMENT
Opened 24,039.4, gap down 172.25 pts below Friday’s 24,211.65 close, below yesterday’s TPO VA (24,170-24,210), unfilled. Tested the OR low 24,000.2 at the 24,000 put wall, reversed toward the IB high. Open-type engines disagree (Open-Test-Drive vs OD_UP); the 24,000 hold is the operative fact.
INITIAL BALANCE
IB 24,128.8-24,000.2 = 128.6 pts, 51.9% of ATR-20 (247.85), short of the 60% “contains-the-range” mark, and 10.7% wider than the recent average IB. No breakout yet; leans Normal/Normal-Variation.
VOLUME & OPTIONS CHECK
Straddle decayed 19.8% since the open (227.0→182.15) — responsive/balance signal. ATM IV 16.37% (30th pct, NORMAL, VOL_EXPANDING). Put wall 24,000 (31.5M OI, = OR low); call wall 24,500. PCR-OI 1.50, put-heavy.
DEVELOPING DAY TYPE
P-Shape developing (0.7 confidence: buying early, balance late, VA high) atop Friday’s NORMAL_VARIATION. No IB breakout — control unconfirmed. 7/7 selected stats lean bullish (avg edge 0.43); best: strong-close combo, 56% up/33% down (n=111).
TODAY’S PLAN
– LINE IN THE SAND: 24,000 (OR low / IB low / put wall).
– Above: OTD-up intact; targets 24,180-24,216 (07-10 POC/VAH + multi-week VAH), then naked POC 24,240.
– Below: pattern fails; targets multi-week VAL 23,944, then the 07-08 buying tail (23,844-23,875).
– TRAP WARNING: 24,180-24,240 stacks prior POC/VAH, weekly POC/VWAP, and a 24,220-24,226 selling tail — no chasing without 2+ TPO acceptance.
KEY LEVELS
Level | Type | Why it matters
24,240 | Naked POC | 07-10 magnet, cluster top
24,216 | Balance VAH | Multi-week VAH, confluent w/ 07-10 VAH
24,180 | POC | 07-10 TPO POC, naked
24,128.8 | IB High | Breakout trigger
24,050 | VPOC | Multi-week VPOC, first support
24,000 | Put Wall/OR Low | Line in the sand
23,944 | Balance VAL | Next support if 24,000 fails
23,875 | Buying Tail | 07-08 tail top, deeper support