POST-IB BRIEF — NIFTY (10:20 IST)
• Gap-down 290 pts (1.26%), opened 23081 below prior VA (23330–23460) and 2-day balance floor (23247); P-Shape at 70% confidence; IB (23070–23202) intact, no breakout.
• IB 132 pts = 44% of ATR-20 (297 pts): below wide-IB threshold; straddle +7.3% (226→242) — rising IB premium = trend-day signal, not balance.
• Anchored VWAPs all overhead: D1 23469, D2 23464, D3 23397, weekly 23473; session price entirely below; PERFECT_BEAR rolling stack confirms macro backdrop.
• Stat lean bearish: 3/7 signals (After NEUTRAL+OA_IR → 56% down, edge 0.56); no contrarian signals.
OPEN ASSESSMENT
NIFTY gapped 290 pts through the 2-day balance floor (23247) and prior TPO VAL (23330). Active buying tail (23152–23215, 2026-06-03) absorbed the flush to 23070; P-Shape short-covering lifted to 23202; gap unfilled. Gap >0.5% and unfilled through IB = initiative gap-down signal per open-type rules.
INITIAL BALANCE
IB 23070–23202, 132 pts (44% of ATR-20 297 pts; 93% of avg IB 142 pts). Day range = IB range; no breakout. Below 60% ATR threshold with sticky straddle → range extension likely over balance containment.
VOLUME & OPTIONS CHECK
Straddle +7.3% through IB (226→242) — rising premium during IB = developing imbalance signal. IV expanded 13.2 (Friday close)→20.8 (20th pct); call wall 24000, put wall 23000; PCR neutral (0.98).
DEVELOPING DAY TYPE
P-Shape (0.7): short-covering from gap lows, TPO concentration at IB high, OTF unconfirmed. Once covering exhausts, P-Shape rules: price fills lower half and prior downtrend resumes.
TODAY’S PLAN
LINE IN THE SAND: 23202 (IB High)
Above 23202 (2-TPO acceptance): Auction failure at multi-week balance low (23151) activates; targets — naked TPO POC 23240 → prior VAL 23330 → naked POC 23440. Stop below 23150.
Below 23070 (IB Low): Initiative gap-down confirmed; multi-week balance breakdown. Targets: naked Vol POC 22980, measured move 22710. Stop: recovery above 23130.
TRAP WARNING: P-Shape = short-covering “old business.” Do NOT chase longs above 23202 — all anchored VWAPs 250+ pts overhead; OTF confirmation absent.
KEY LEVELS (high → low):
| Level | Type | Note |
|——-|——|——|
| 23473 | Weekly VWAP | Intermediate pivot |
| 23440 | Naked TPO POC | Gap-fill primary magnet |
| 23330 | Prior TPO VAL | First gap-fill resistance |
| 23240 | Naked TPO POC | First above-IB target |
| 23202 | IB High / LITS | Session make-or-break |
| 23152 | Buying tail base | Intraday support |
| 23070 | IB Low | Session invalidation |